Lake Erie will probably experience a rare strong “Seiche” this weekend (Jan 13 2024). Fetch is a measurement of distance that wind can travel across water more-or-less uninterrupted. If the fetch is long, the effects are greater. Sustained winds traveling southwest to northeast produce a long fetch across Lake Erie.

The sustained winds cause water to build-up at the downwind side of the fetch.

Look at the weather pressure isobars and the deep low pressure over Lake Erie for Jan 13 2024.

Here is the predicted water level changes for Jan 13 2024, with water Level decreasing at Lake Erie’s west end (Toledo) and rising at Lake Erie’s east end.

In 1844, a 22-foot seiche breached a 14-foot-high sea wall killing 78 people and damming the ice to the extent that Niagara Falls temporarily stopped flowing